Latest Sector Performance (2024/2025)
Copper Production (2024 Actual)
820,676 Metric Tonnes
12% increase from 2023, driven by KCM/Mopani resumption. **2031 Target: 3 Million Mt**.
LME Copper Price (Avg. 2024)
~$9,200 USD/Tonne
Price volatility remains the largest external risk to the Zambian economy.
Share of Govt. Revenue (2022)
~44%
Mining is the largest single source of government tax and non-tax revenue.
Copper Price & Production Trend (1995-2025)
**Analysis:** The copper boom post-2003 drove investment, while periods like 2015/2016 saw prices crash, causing fiscal stress regardless of production levels.
Actionable Insights & Policy Focus
Government / Ministry of Finance
- **Fiscal Regime Stability:** Frequent changes to the tax regime (10 changes in 16 years up to 2018) have hindered long-term investment. Stability is paramount.
- **Revenue Volatility:** Royalty taxes provide stable, immediate cash, while corporate income tax (CIT) is volatile (due to depreciation/tax credits). Balancing these two is key.
- **Future-Proofing:** Use current high prices to fund the **Sovereign Wealth Fund** (if established) or invest in non-mining **Energy Infrastructure** (Solar, etc.) to de-risk the economy.
Private Sector / Investors
- **Investment Confidence:** Significant new investment pledges (>$9B since 2024) signal high confidence following debt restructuring and KCM/Mopani resolution.
- **Energy Risk:** Production growth is directly constrained by the **electricity deficit**. Investment in **Captive Power Plants** (solar/gas) remains a necessary self-insurance against grid instability.
- **Value-Addition:** Opportunities exist in local supply chain and **value-addition** (smelting/refining) to benefit from the tax incentives provided for mineral processing.
NGOs / Resource Governance
- **Transparency (EITI):** The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) disclosures must be rigorously monitored to ensure that all due tax and non-tax revenues are collected.
- **Local Content:** Advocacy is needed to ensure local Zambian suppliers' (currently ~82% at Mopani) share of contracts remains high and that skills are transferred effectively.
- **Environmental Impact:** Scrutiny over the **social and environmental impact** of resumed operations (e.g., KCM dewatering) is critical to protect local communities and water resources.